It's that innovative offense that landed Mauricio "Shogun" Rua the surprising championship in my light heavyweight tournament
Pool A: #1 Rashad Evans vs #4 Ricardo Arona
Evans is the champion and is a great athlete with striking that is improving every time out. Arona looked to be on the decline lately, but his submission skills are top notch. I don't think Evans would do the smart thing and use his wrestling. Instead, he will try to strike, Arona will get the takedown work for a submission and pull off a huge upset to start the tournament.
Pool A: #2 Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs #3. Vladimir Matyushenko
Babalu was considered the best jujitsu player in all of mixed martial arts for a while and remains dangerous on the ground. Matyushenko is a world-class wrestler and is no slouch when it comes to sambo. I think Babalu hits him with some of his heavy hands, but will eventually get taken down. Once down though, I think Babalu works for a submission from his back and gets the win.
Pool Championship: Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs Ricardo Arona
This fight would have its moments of downtime because I think its a wash on the ground. Neither man would get an advantage on the mat. Babalu would rough Arona up a little bit on the feet and since Babalu has fought in America for some time now, his wrestling and ground-and-pound has improved and will ultimately lead him to victory.
Pool B: #1. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs #4. Brandon Vera
Rampage is a super athlete and is one of the strongest fighters around. He hits like a truck and slams even harder. Vera is a more well-versed athlete in that he is explosive and flexible. While I believe Vera's flexibility and height make him a dangerous submission and Muay Thai artist, I still think Rampage overpowers "The Truth" and take a victory.
Pool B: #2. Rich Franklin vs #3. Forrest Griffin
This is the best fight of the first round. These guys have the two biggest hearts in the game and never quit. This fight would be on the feet the whole time and both guys would take a lot of punishment. Franklin's confidence, composure and accuracy would be too much for Griffin's power and pace in the end. I think this would be a classic matchup and would love to see it.
Pool Championship: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs Rich Franklin
Another matchup I would love to see. Both guys are great strikers but there is a clear advantage in power and in wrestling for Rampage. For as much as I love Franklin's never-say-die attitude, I think this is another situation like Anderson Silva where he would just be overwhelmed. Close fight for a while, but Rampage gets the knockout.
Pool C: #1. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs #4. Thiago Silva
This is a perfect example of experience vs youth. Silva is loaded with talent and has all the tools to be champion, but he is young and makes stupid mistakes, especially in his striking. Nogueira is always composed and ready to capitalize on any mistake. Silva would come out swinging for the fences, Nogueira would counter and drop him before getting a stoppage or a submission.
Pool C: #2. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs #3. Wanderlei Silva
I don't think anyone would want to face a striker as dangerous as Silva in the first round, but Shogun has the most tools out of all the fighters. He is a jujitsu ace and an accurate and powerful striker. I think Silva rocks Shogun early and puts him in trouble, but Silva will get sloppy going for the knockout and eat a counter that turns the tide of the fight and gets the win for Shogun.
Pool Championship: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
This fight will be a much slower pace than their first round fights. Both men will take the time to feel each other out. I think Rua's athletic ability will give him the upper hand in being able to make changes quickly and efficiently. It will be a very close fight, but Rua stays one step ahead and wins on the scorecards.
Pool D: #1. Lyoto Machida vs #4. Chuck Liddell
We can call this the passing of the torch. Liddell dominated his division for a long time, but Machida shows he is the real deal when he outclasses the "Iceman" for three straight rounds and wins impressively on the scorecards. Machida gets a lot of heat for not finishing fights, but the bottom line is he wins and he fights very efficiently by taking minimal damage.
Pool D: #2. Dan Henderson vs #3. Keith Jardine
These two fighters embody the definition of toughness. They fight anywhere, anytime and against anyone. Jardine could use his excellent leg kicks to keep Henderson from landing his devastating right hand. Henderson is one of the best at making mid-fight adjustments and I think he would find a way to take Jardine down and use his wrestling to ground-and-pound a win.
Pool Championship: Lyoto Machida vs Dan Henderson
Machida has mastered the art of jumping in, hitting his opponent and retreating. It's a great strategy, but against a wrestler as good as Henderson, it can be timed. Henderson would time it, look for a takedown and use his superior strength to test the chin of Machida and hand him his first loss of his career.
Semifinal: #1. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs #2. Renato "Babalu" Sobral
Babalu has always had one weakness and it has been explosive and powerful strikers. In his match with Liddell, Babalu looked completely scared for the beginning of the fight. I think Rampage comes out and solidifies himself as the fighter that will dictate the pace and keep Babalu uncomfortable. Rampage scores a knockout for the win.
Semifinal: #2. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs #2. Dan Henderson
Henderson is going to come out aggressive and push the pace on Shogun who likes to take time to feel out opponents. But when Rua get hits, his killer instinct comes out and one punch is all it takes for him to get in a rhythm that can be very dangerous for opponents. Shogun looked slow and gassed against Mark Coleman, but when he is ready, he is near impossible to beat. I think Rua finds his confidence and gets a knockout.
Championship: #1. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs #2. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
By now Shogun is confident, so just get out of the way. The only man that looks similar to Rua when he is on his game is Anderson Silva. If Rampage's plan doesn't work right away he will start to second guess his strategy just like in the Forrest Griffin fight. Rua I think would go for broke and bring the heat on Rampage. Rua overwhelms him and uses his power and accuracy to pull off the upset.
Champion: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
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