Shinya Aoki makes people bend in mysterious ways. It's no wonder fighters fear him and his stretchy pants and it's no wonder I consider him the best lightweight in the world.
Gumby wins this tournament after some tough battles and once again, fighters must learn to respect the stretchy pants.
Pool A: #1. BJ Penn vs #4. Joe Stevenson
We saw this fight happen last year and it wasn't a pretty sight. Penn made Stevenson spout blood like Old Faithful Gyser. I think Penn uses that violent streak of his and tears up Stevenson on the feet. Penn's boxing is top notch and would overwhelm Stevenson again as Penn gets a knockout.
Pool A: #2. Sean Sherk vs #3. Josh Thomson
These are two physical, strong wrestlers going head to head. Thomson relies more on his speed when wrestling whereas Sherk is all about the power. I think its a very close contest, but I would expect Sherk to win a decision as he should be able to hold the dominant position for most of the fight.
Pool Championship: BJ Penn vs Sean Sherk
We have also seen this matchup once before, and once again, it was all Penn. I think Sherk would waste a lot of energy trying to take Penn to the mat, but Penn's superior balance and striking would keep Sherk off balance and Penn would win with another knockout.
Pool B: #1. Shinya Aoki vs #4. Jamie Varner
Varner knows how to strike and box very well, but he is pretty helpless on the ground. Aoki on the other hand is not very good on his feet and has a suspect chin, but he never has a problem getting his opponent to the mat even though they try their best to avoid it. Aoki catches Varner in an armbar for a submission victory.
Pool B: #2. Diego Sanchez vs #3. Gilbert Melendez
This is a dream matchup. Both men have cardio through the roof and love to fight at a fast pace. Both men would definitely have their moments of greatness in the fight, but in the end, it has been Sanchez who has folded under the pressure of highly regarded opponents more often. I think Melendez pulls out a razor thin decision.
Pool Championship: Shinya Aoki vs Gilbert Melendez
This would be a fun match in theory, but the problem is Melendez would have to take the fight to the mat so he could use his ground-and-pound. Once the fight hit the mat, Aoki would have little problem working off his back and securing a triangle choke for the victory.
Pool C: #1. Eddie Alvarez vs #4. Tyson Griffin
The best American fighter no one has heard of could make his name in the U.S. with a win over one of UFC's hottest prospects, Tyson Griffin. Both are strong in wrestling, but Alvarez has beaten some of the best in the world and he would use that experience to outclass the tough Griffin and show the UFC what they have been missing.
Pool C: #2. Joachim Hansen vs #3. Takanori Gomi
Both men just want to hit people hard so this fight would be a barn burner. The Fireball Kid was the best in the world at one point, but Hansen seems to be more in his prime while Gomi is beginning to fade. I think Gomi tires late in the fight and Hansen wins by knockout.
Pool Championship: Eddie Alvarez vs Joachim Hansen
Hansen is a tremendous striker and a tough guy, but he has a ceiling and there isn't much he can do about it. If Alvarez has a ceiling, he hasn't shown it yet. I think this is another grueling fight, but Alvarez manages to win by decision just like the first time these two met.
Pool D: #1. Kenny Florian vs #4. Mitsuhiro Ishida
Ishida is about as tough as a 4-seed can get, so this is tough for KenFlo. Ishida's best quality is his relentlessness, but that won't be enough to overcome Florian's efficiency. KenFlo has proven to be a student of the game as he is one of the best at finishing fights, whether its on the feet or on the mat. Florian gets a submission victory.
Pool D: #2. Gesias "JZ" Calvancanti vs Tatsuya Kawajiri
BJ Penn may be nicknamed "The Prodigy," but it is Calvancanti who has the most potential. Kawajiri has the power to floor anyone, but Calvancanti is so well-rounded he always has an escape and a way to win. I think JZ gets the win by submission.
Pool Championship: Kenny Florian vs Gesias "JZ" Calvancanti
These are two of the most well-rounded fighters in the game, but I think Calvancanti's athleticism is too much. Florian is a very smart fighter, but he can be limited athletically and that is a big hurdle when facing JZ. I think the pace is too fast and JZ wins by decision.
Semifinal: #1. BJ Penn vs #1. Shinya Aoki
This is the fight everyone wants to see. This might be the best matchup in all of MMA regardless of weight class right now. Two world champion caliber jujitsu fighters squaring off. Penn has a huge advantage on his feet, but no one finishes submissions like Aoki. Penn hits Aoki with a big shot that sends him to the mat, but Aoki scrambles and submits the man who is impossible to submit. Aoki wins by the skin of his teeth.
Semifinal: Eddie Alvarez vs Gesias "JZ" Calvancanti
The two best prospects in the lightweight division go head-to-head. At this point, the only two things separating these two is submissions. I think Calvancanti is a little more skilled when it comes to putting opponents away on the mat. Alvarez has power and great ground-and-pound, but he is still open to getting submitted and I think JZ does just that and gets the win.
Final: Shinya Aoki vs Gesias "JZ" Calvancanti
JZ would get another crack at Aoki, but I think the result remains the same. The first time they met, the fight was ruled a no contest after JZ was disqualified for illegal elbows. The second time they fought, Aoki won by decision. This time, I think Aoki wins by submission. JZ struggled to contain Aoki on the ground and this time he gets caught.
Champion: Shinya Aoki
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