Saturday, January 24, 2009

Forecast in LA: Bloody with a chance of a Tornado


If you live in Los Angeles and you feel the earth beginning to rumble underneath your feet, don't worry, it's not an earthquake, it's probably just Antonio Margarito. 

The Tijuana Tornado returns to the ring tonight for the first time since his epic fight with Miguel Cotto in July to defend the Welterweight Championship against Shane Mosley. Margarito is headlining a wild night of fights in Los Angeles with his highly anticipated mach with Mosley happening just 30-miles away from Affliction 2. It's sure to be on the bloodiest nights in Los Angeles. 

Margarito captured my heart and support after his tremendous fight against Cotto, so this has been a match I have been looking forward to for quite some time. Mosley has solidified himself as one of the finest boxers of this generation, but as he pushes 38 years old, this could be his swan song. 

If Mosley loses, I would expect him to look for another fight against a fairly big name because he is still good enough to go out on top. If he wins, I think he might call it a career, though many experts think he will continue to fight for at least two more years regardless of the outcome.   

But the storylines outside of the ring are nowhere near as intriguing as what will be told in the ring. This is a classic matchup of power vs speed. Margarito will walk right through punches to deliver his crushing body blows while Mosley will jump to the inside and fire off lightning fast combinations before retreating outside of striking distance.

In many ways, I see this fight going similar to the Cotto/Margarito fight. I think Mosley will start off strong and win the first three or four rounds. By round five, I think he will start to slow down and Margarito will start to deliver the punishment. 

Both fighters have their weaknesses though. Look for Mosley to keep his right hand low, really low. When Mosley gets in a rhythm with his jab, which he is sure to do, he gets a little too loose and starts opening his stance really wide when he throw his jab, leaving his right hand down near his knee. If this happens Margarito should look to throw a left hook as Mosley jabs. The hook will do major damage whether it lands to the body or the head. 

For Margarito, he tends to forget about his jab. He tends to have a height advantage against his opponents and he will again as he stand two inches taller than Mosley at 5' 11." But if Margarito fails to use his jab, he will be unable to keep Mosley on the outside. "Sugar" Shane should then be able to jump inside and hit his patent combinations at will. 

Though Mosley has never been knocked out in his career, there is a first time for everything and I expect that first time to happen tonight. Margarito will work a lot to the body and slow down Mosley throughout the fight, eventually scoring a knockout in the later rounds. 

Antonio Margarito retains Welterweight Championship via 9th round knockout

On the undercard of Margarito/Mosley is the return of Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero. Guerrero lived up to his nickname the last 11 months as he was nowhere to be found because of contractual problems with Goosen. Now that Guerrero has finally severed ties with Goosen, he is ready to debut at junior lightweight under the Golden Boy banner. 

The two-time featherweight champion was one of the most promising boxers before having to sit out a year, as he had one of the most impressive victories I have seen when he knocked out red-hot prospect Jason Litzau in one of this three title defenses. All his defenses ended with his opponent staring at the arena lights. 

Guerrero should be even stronger and faster at his new weight class and I am hoping for another exciting knockout over Edel Ruiz (31-21-4) . 

I have not seen any of the other fighters on the undercard but Ring Magazine has tagged Matt Korobov and Adrien Broner as two fighters to keep an eye on. 

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