UFC 86 Predictions

This Saturday is UFC 86: Griffin vs Jackson, which means it's time to give my "expert" opinion on the winners and losers. The card looks pretty solid on paper with an undercard featuring a match for a shot at the Middleweight championship and a promising heavyweight looking to get back on track. The main event of course pits "Ultimate Fighter" coaches Quinton "Rampage" Jackson against Forrest Griffin...so lets get to it!

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Justin McCully
Gonzaga looked like UFC's savior in the heavyweight division after he decapitated "Cro Cop" with a left high kick for one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Unfortunately, Gonzaga got a nose job from Randy Couture's ground and pound and then looked lost in a fight against Fabricio Werdum. After two losses though, he is ready to get back in the win column. McCully has trained with Tito Ortiz in the past (mainly as his human punching bag) and I expect Gonzaga to punish him the same way with his tremendous physical strength.

Gonzaga via 1st round TKO

Cole Miller vs Jorge Gurgel
This is very tough to call. Gurgel has underachieved his whole career, but he is a great coach as witnessed by the success of his students in the UFC. Miller has overachieved in my eyes and hasn't faced great competition except for Jeremy Stephens, who he lost to. This will be the last time I pick Gurgel if he loses, but I hope he shows what he is capable of. Expect Gurgel to get a decision after controlling the fight on the ground.

Gurgel via unanimous decision

Dennis Siver vs Melvin Guillard
I absolutely hate Guillard. He got kicked out of the UFC after trying to start a fight after losing a fight in the 1st round. He is the biggest talker this side of Mike Tyson and he can't back it up when facing top competition. Unfortunately, he isn't against top competition this weekend. He draws Dennis Siver, a good grappler who isn't good enough to make the jump in competition. Look for Guillard to score the knockout (and then talk until the next 4th of July).

Guillard via 2nd round KO

Corey Hill vs Justin Buchholz
Hill is a special athlete. He fights at lightweight (155) despite being 6' 4". If he is progressing like expected, the beanstalk should keep winning. Buchholz is the fighting pride of Alaska...but that's the problem. He built his great record in Alaska.

Hill via unanimous decision

Joe Stevenson vs Gleison Tibau
It's nice to see Joe Daddy back. Last time we saw him he was shedding more blood than a "Hostel" movie. That came at the hands of one of the top 5 fighters in the world though, so its excusable. Stevenson is a tremendous fighter and will use his excellent wrestling and ju-jitsu to finish off Tibau. Stevenson should get back into title contention.

Stevenson via 1st round submission

Ricardo Almeida vs Patrick Cote
This one is for a future shot at the middleweight title. Cote has been on a Cinderella run as of late with impressive KO victories, but I think it stops Saturday. Almeida is a ju-jitsu monster, and I think if the fight hits the floor just once, Cote will be tapping.

Almeida via 2nd round submission

Tyson Griffin vs Marcus Aurelio
This looks like a great technical fight. No flash or flair here, but it's a coin toss. Aurelio hasn't looked as good in the UFC as he did in PrideFC, so a tough opponent like Griffin could be the difference. I think Griffin literally wrestles a decision away from Aurelio.

Griffin via unanimous decision

Chris Lytle vs Josh Koscheck
Classic striker vs grappler match. Both need a win, but Koz will get it. His wrestling is some of the best in MMA today and it's very difficult to stop his takedown. His striking should be good enough to survive on his feet and he should be back in the win column.

Koscheck via 2nd round TKO stoppage

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs Forrest Griffin
The main event for the Light-Heavyweight Championship. Rampage has been tremendous with the title, defeating Liddell with KO to win it and beating Dan Henderson in a 5 round war to retain. Griffin had a shocking win over Maricio Rua to get the shot, but Rampage is going to be too strong. Quinton is technically sound at striking and super strong on the ground. Griffin is a little wild and will probably get caught with a hard punch.

Jackson retains title via KO in 3rd round